Services PMI® at 56.5%; February 2022 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 55.1%; New Orders Index at 56.1%; Employment Index at 48.5%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 66.2%

TEMPE, Ariz., March 3, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — Economic activity in the services sector grew in February for the 21st month in a row — with the Services PMI^® registering 56.5 percent — say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In February, the Services PMI^® registered 56.5 percent, 3.4 percentage points below January’s reading of 59.9 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 55.1 percent, a decrease of 4.8 percentage points compared to the reading of 59.9 percent in January, and the New Orders Index figure of 56.1 percent is 5.6 percentage points lower than the January reading of 61.7 percent.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 66.2 percent, 0.5 percentage point higher than the 65.7 percent reported in January. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^®Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 83.1 percent, up 0.8 percentage point from the January figure of 82.3 percent. Services businesses are beginning to replenish inventories, as the Inventories Index (50.8 percent, up 1.4 percentage points from January’s reading of 49.4 percent) and the Inventory Sentiment Index (55.3 percent, up 7.8 percentage points from January’s reading of 47.5 percent) grew in February to emerge from contraction or ‘too low’ territory.”

Nieves continues, “According to the Services PMI^®, 14 industries reported growth. The composite index indicated growth for the 21st consecutive month after a two-month contraction in April and May 2020. Although there was a pullback for most of the indexes comprising the Services PMI^® in February, growth continues for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 145 months. Respondents continue to be impacted by supply chain disruptions, capacity constraints, inflation, logistical challenges and labor shortages. These conditions have affected the ability of panelists’ businesses to meet demand, leading to a cooling in business activity and economic growth.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
The 14 services industries reporting growth in February — listed in order — are: Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; Retail Trade; Information; and Other Services. The four industries reporting a decrease in February are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Accommodation & Food Services.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• “Raw material increases, labor shortages, wage increases and transportation issues are still the primary issues affecting our operations and pricing.” [Accommodation & Food Services]
• “Supply chain challenges continue to result in lower inventories of products and higher costs. The challenges are at the highest point since COVID-19 began.” [Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting]
• “We are projecting 2022 to be busier than 2021. Our business volume should begin to increase significantly in March.” [Arts, Entertainment & Recreation]
• “We are getting price increases with no notice. For example, our engineered wood products supplier gave us a 10 percent to 20 percent (based on SKU) increase, effective immediately. We are also struggling to get materials. Suppliers cite poor employee attendance, elevated employee turnover and positions open longer than normal as they struggle to fill them.” [Construction]
• “Inflation is contributing to budget constraints, supply chain restraints and labor shortages.” [Educational Services]
• “Employee turnover within our company and with our suppliers is causing delays in decisions and orders.” [Finance & Insurance]
• “As the COVID-19 surge starts to loosen its grip, we are planning to resume elective surgeries soon. Demand is still high, as these procedures were delayed while the surge was occurring.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• “Business has flattened but holding steady.” [Information]
• “Staffing shortages, supply chain disruptions and rising inflation continue to impact the world economy. Companies are struggling to hire direct employees and non-employee labor because wages continue to increase for both. The Great Resignation is real: Employees, contractors and consultants continue to quit their jobs and engagements for opportunities that pay more and have more flexible work options. Millions of light industrial jobs remain open in the U.S., with limited interest from job seekers. Severe labor shortages are expected well into 2022. Corporations need to increase wages and salaries to attract talent and get work done. Faster wage growth is expected to lead to increased inflation.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
• “Appear to be on the upswing from COVID-19 from an absenteeism standpoint. Still dealing with long lead times for wire, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), steel, transformers and meters. Winter weather has not had an impact on productivity levels.” [Utilities]

Services ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Prices indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
**Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Adhesives; Aluminum Products (3); Chemicals; Chicken (6); Computers and Peripherals (2); Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF); Diesel Fuel (15); Electrical Components (13); Electronic Components (3); Exam Gloves; Food and Beverages (3); Freight (10); Fuel (14); Gasoline (15); Glassware; Hotel Rates; Janitorial Supplies; Labor (15); Labor — Construction (7); Labor — Technical (4); Labor — Temporary; Lumber (2); Logistics Services; Oriented Strand Board (OSB); Paper; Paper Products (3); Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) (3); Plastic Products (7); Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Products (6); Safety Products; Steel* (5); Steel Products (14); and Transportation Costs.

Commodities Down in Price
Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) — Gloves; and Steel*.

Commodities in Short Supply
Adhesives; Blood Collection Tubes; Catheters; Computers and Peripherals (2); Construction Contractors (6); Crutches (5); Dialysate; Dressings (2); Electrical Components; Electronic Components (3); IV Tubing; Labor (7); Labor — Technical (2); Labor — Full Time (2); Needles and Syringes (2); Network Equipment; Oriented Strand Board (OSB); Safety Devices; Tubing — Medical; and Vacutainers (2).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item. *Indicates both up and down in price.

FEBRUARY 2022 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI^®
In February, the Services PMI^® registered 56.5 percent, a 3.4-percentage point decrease compared to the January reading of 59.9 percent. The 12-month average is 62.6 percent, which reflects consistently strong growth in the services sector. This is the lowest Services PMI^® reading since February 2021 (55.9 percent). The February reading indicates the services sector grew for the 21st consecutive month after two months of contraction and 122 months of growth before that. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the services sector is generally contracting.

A Services PMI^® above 50.1 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the February Services PMI^® indicates expansion for a 21st straight month following two months of contraction and a preceding period of 122 months of growth. Nieves says, “The past relationship between the Services PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI^® for February (56.5 percent) corresponds to a 2.3-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

SERVICES PMI^® HISTORY

Business Activity
ISM^®‘s Business Activity Index registered 55.1 percent in February, a decrease of 4.8 percentage points from the reading of 59.9 percent in January, indicating growth for the 21st consecutive month. Comments from respondents include: “More operations returning to near normal” and “Weather in many parts of the country slowed movement a bit; however, regained some momentum at month’s end.”

The 13 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of February — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; Construction; Public Administration; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Retail Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The four industries reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of February are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Accommodation & Food Services.

New Orders
ISM^®‘s New Orders Index registered 56.1 percent, down 5.6 percentage points from the January reading of 61.7 percent. New orders grew for the 21st consecutive month after two months of contraction and a preceding period of 128 months of expansion. Comments from respondents include: “Supply disruptions have left businesses unable to meet surging demand” and “Typical slowdown after the holiday season.”

Eleven industries reported growth of new orders in February, in the following order: Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Educational Services; Utilities; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Retail Trade. The three industries reporting a decrease in new orders in February are: Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; and Information.

Employment
Employment activity in the services sector contracted in February for the first time since June 2021. ISM^®‘s Services Employment Index registered 48.5 percent in February, down 3.8 percentage points from the reading of 52.3 percent registered in January. Comments from respondents include: “We are experiencing people retiring and/or leaving the company for higher wages and/or work-from-home options” and “We are having significant issues with hiring both full time and contract labor.” Also: “Open positions are not being filled, and candidates are looking for more money.”

The seven industries reporting an increase in employment in February — listed in order — are: Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Educational Services. The eight industries that reported a reduction in employment in February — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Public Administration; Utilities; Retail Trade; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; and Information.

Supplier Deliveries
The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 66.2 percent, up 0.5 percentage point from the 65.7 percent registered in January. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: “Bulk truck and rail shipments are pushed out and more unpredictable” and “Product shortages, freight issues and rising costs.”

The 16 industries reporting slower deliveries in February — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; Accommodation & Food Services;  Transportation & Warehousing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Utilities; Public Administration; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Other Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. No industry reported faster supplier deliveries in February.

Inventories
The Inventories Index grew in February after eight consecutive months of contraction. The reading of 50.8 percent was a 1.4-percentage point increase from the 49.4 percent reported in January. Of the total respondents in February, 44 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Still experiencing stockouts due to constrained supply chain” and “Due to longer lead times and supply chain disruptions, shelves have lower-than-normal inventories.”

The nine industries reporting an increase in inventories in February — listed in order — are: Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Public Administration. The seven industries reporting a decrease in inventories in February — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Construction; Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

Prices
Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in February for the 57th consecutive month, with the index registering 83.1 percent, 0.8 percentage point higher than the January reading of 82.3 percent.

All 18 services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of February, in the following order: Construction; Wholesale Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Utilities; Public Administration; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Accommodation & Food Services; and Retail Trade.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
The ISM^® Services Backlog of Orders Index grew in February for the 14th consecutive month. Compared to the January reading of 57.4 percent, the Backlog of Orders Index registered 64.2 percent, a 6.8-percentage point increase, the largest increase since February 2020 (+7.7 percentage points). Of the total respondents in February, 41 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders. Respondent comments include: “Slow supplier fulfillment due to supply chain disruption” and “Backlog increasing, as we are unable to complete customer orders on time due to component shortages.”

The 13 industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in February — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Information. The three industries that reported a decrease in backlogs in February are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; and Educational Services.

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies grew in February after contracting in January for the first time in 12 months. The New Export Orders Index registered 53 percent, a 7.1-percentage point increase from the 45.9 percent reported in January. Of the total respondents in February, 78 percent indicated they do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The seven industries reporting an increase in new export orders in February — listed in order — are: Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The two industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in February are: Construction; and Accommodation & Food Services. Nine industries reported no change in exports orders.

Imports
The Imports Index grew in February for the fifth consecutive month, registering 51.7 percent, up 0.6 percentage point from January’s figure of 51.1 percent. Eighty percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The six industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of February — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; Transportation & Warehousing; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The six industries that reported a decrease in imports in February — listed in order — are: Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Six industries reported no change in imports in February.

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM^® Services Inventory Sentiment Index expanded in February after 10 straight months in contraction, registering 55.3 percent, a 7.8-percentage point increase from January’s figure of 47.5 percent. This reading indicates that respondents feel their inventories are too high when correlated to business activity levels.

The five industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in February are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Information; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The seven industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in February — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Construction; Utilities; and Wholesale Trade. Six industries reported no change in Inventory Sentiment in February.

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of February 2022.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services). The data are weighted based on each industry’s contribution to GDP. According to the BEA estimates for 2020 GDP (released December 22, 2021), the six largest services sectors are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Government; Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Finance & Insurance. Beginning in February 2020 with January 2020 data, computation of the indexes is accomplished utilizing unrounded numbers.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI^® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI^® above 50.1 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 50.1 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 50.1 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management^®
Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 50,000 members around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM Report On Business^®, its highly regarded certification programs and the ISM Advance^™ Digital Platform. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.

The full text version of the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is posted on ISM^®‘s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET.

The next Services ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring March 2022 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, April 5, 2022.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

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SOURCE Institute for Supply Management