Services PMI® at 48.8%; June 2024 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 49.6%; New Orders Index at 47.3%; Employment Index at 46.1%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 52.2%

TEMPE, Ariz., July 3, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Economic activity in the services sector contracted in June for the second time in the last three months, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®. The Services PMI^® registered 48.8 percent, indicating sector contraction for the third time in 49 months.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In June, the Services PMI^® registered 48.8 percent, 5 percentage points lower than May’s figure of 53.8 percent. The reading in June was a reversal compared to May and the second in contraction territory in the last three months. Before April, the services sector grew for 15 straight months following a composite index reading of 49 percent in December 2022; the last contraction before that was in May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 49.6 percent in June, which is 11.6 percentage points lower than the 61.2 percent recorded in May and the first month of contraction since May 2020. The New Orders Index contracted in June for the first time since December 2022; the figure of 47.3 percent is 6.8 percentage points lower than the May reading of 54.1 percent. The Employment Index contracted for the sixth time in seven months and at a faster rate in June; the reading of 46.1 percent is a 1-percentage point decrease compared to the 47.1 percent recorded in May.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 52.2 percent, 0.5 percentage point lower than the 52.7 percent recorded in May. The index remained in expansionary territory — indicating slower supplier delivery performance — in June for a second month after three straight months in ‘faster’ territory. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 56.3 percent in June, a 1.8-percentage point decrease from May’s reading of 58.1 percent. The Inventories Index contracted in June registering 42.9 percent, a decrease of 9.2 percentage points from May’s figure of 52.1 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (64.1 percent, up 6.4 percentage points from May’s reading of 57.7 percent) expanded for the 14th consecutive month. The Backlog of Orders Index contracted in June for the first time since March, registering 44 percent, a 6.8-percentage point decrease compared to the May reading of 50.8 percent.

“Eight industries reported growth in June. Though the Services PMI^® contracted for the second time in three months, that was preceded by 15 consecutive months of growth, a contraction in December 2022 and 30 months of expansion before that. That indicates sustained growth for the sector, as the PMI^® has not recorded back-to-back months in contraction since April and May 2020.”

Miller continues, “The decrease in the composite index in June is a result of notably lower business activity, a contraction in new orders for the second time since May 2020 and continued contraction in employment. Survey respondents report that in general, business is flat or lower, and although inflation is easing, some commodities have significantly higher costs. Panelists indicate that slower supplier delivery performance is due primarily to transportation challenges, not increases in demand.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
The eight services industries reporting growth in June — listed in order — are: Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The eight industries reporting a decrease in the month of June — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; and Information.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• “Sales and traffic remain soft compared to last year. High gas prices in California and constant news about inflation and restaurant menu prices are culprits.” [Accommodation & Food Services]
• “Costs seem to have stabilized but are still higher. The company is holding steady to see what the election will hold.” [Construction]
• “Currently, our operations are normal, but we are experiencing slightly higher costs due to the increase in fuel. We are at the end of our fiscal year, when an increase in expenditures is typical.” [Educational Services]
• “Steady, with no major shifts in pricing or availability of services.” [Finance & Insurance]
• “Demand for services has moderated after near-record patient levels in the last month.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• “We are still experiencing supply chain challenges with the increased cost of chemicals, as well as the domestic and overseas freight costs associated with them.” [Management of Companies & Support Services]
• “Slightly higher prices across the board, but less pricing pressure for some items. Still long lead times for heavy equipment, fire apparatus, ambulances and the like.” [Public Administration]
• “Inflation continues to be a general concern for both purchasers and sellers. For example, with inflation continuing, will customers have enough discretionary funds to spend?” [Retail Trade]
• “Supply issues have calmed down. Prices on many products remain high, with no sign of decreases.” [Utilities]
• “Market seems to be slowing in June. This is complicated by increased ocean freight rates and tight container bookings.” [Wholesale Trade]

Services ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Prices indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum (2); Construction Contractors (6); Copper Based Products (2); Labor (43); and Labor — Technical (2).

Commodities Down in Price
Fuel (2); Lumber (2); Petroleum Based Products; and Steel Products (2).

Commodities in Short Supply
Electrical Equipment; Labor (5); Labor — Skilled; Switchgear (4); Syringes (2); and Transformers.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

JUNE 2024 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI^®
In June, the Services PMI^® registered 48.8 percent, a 5-percentage point decrease compared to the May reading of 53.8 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates it is generally contracting.

A Services PMI^® above 49 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the June Services PMI^® indicates the overall economy is contracting for the first time in 17 months. Miller says, “The past relationship between the Services PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI^® for June (48.8 percent) corresponds to no increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

SERVICES PMI^® HISTORY

Business Activity
ISM^®‘s Business Activity Index registered 49.6 percent in June, 11.6 percentage points lower than the 61.2 percent recorded in May, indicating contraction for the first time since May 2020 (41.2 percent). Prior to this month’s reading, the Business Activity Index had been in expansion territory for 48 consecutive months since its coronavirus pandemic lows. Comments from respondents include: “Higher patient volumes” and “Midseason slowing not unexpected or unusual.”

The 10 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of June — listed in order — are: Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; and Transportation & Warehousing. The six industries reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of June — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Retail Trade; Public Administration; and Wholesale Trade.

New Orders
ISM^®‘s New Orders Index registered 47.3 percent in June, 6.8 percentage points lower than the reading of 54.1 percent registered in May. The index indicated contraction for the first time since December 2022, with 30 straight months of growth before that. Comments from respondents include: “Company starting to grow again” and “Slowing of traffic to the stores.”

The 10 industries reporting an increase in new orders for the month of June — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; and Wholesale Trade. The three industries reporting a decrease in new orders for the month of June are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; and Public Administration.

Employment
Employment activity in the services sector contracted in June for the sixth time in seven months following six consecutive months of growth from June to November 2023. The Employment Index registered 46.1 percent, down 1 percentage point from the May figure of 47.1 percent. Comments from respondents include: “We continue to deploy automation” and “Business remains steady in a very tight labor market.”

The five industries reporting an increase in employment in June are: Construction; Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The seven industries reporting a decrease in employment in June, listed in order, are: Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Educational Services; Public Administration; and Information. Six industries reported no change in employment in June.

Supplier Deliveries
In June, the Supplier Deliveries Index indicated slower performance for a second consecutive month and only the fourth time in 19 months. The index registered 52.2 percent, down 0.5 percentage point from the 52.7 percent recorded in May, which was its highest figure since November 2022 (53.8 percent). A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: “Had some delays in deliveries due to recent bad weather events” and “Having trouble booking containers.”

The seven industries reporting slower deliveries in June — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Health Care & Social Assistance; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Public Administration. The six industries reporting faster supplier deliveries for the month of June — listed in order — are: Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; and Information.

Inventories
The Inventories Index contracted in June after two straight months of growth, which was preceded by contraction from December to March. The reading of 42.9 percent was a 9.2-percentage point decrease compared to the 52.1 percent reported in May and the lowest reading since October 2021 (42.2 percent). Of the total respondents in June, 43 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Focus on inventory reduction program” and “Reduced new inventory purchases to sell down old, higher-priced commodities inventory.”

The seven industries reporting an increase in inventories in June — in the following order — are: Construction; Mining; Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The seven industries reporting a decrease in inventories in June — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; Retail Trade; Utilities; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Public Administration.

Prices
Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in June for the 85th consecutive month. The Prices Index registered 56.3 percent, 1.8 percentage points lower than the 58.1 percent recorded in May. The June reading is the 24th in a row near or below 70 percent (including 14 of the last 15 months at or below 60 percent), following 10 straight months of readings near or above 80 percent from September 2021 to June 2022.

Thirteen services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of June, in the following order: Other Services; Public Administration; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Information. Mining was the only industry reporting a decrease in prices for the month of June.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
The ISM^® Services Backlog of Orders Index contracted in June for the second time in the last six months. The index reading of 44 percent is 6.8 percentage points lower than the 50.8 percent reported in May and the lowest since August 2023 (41.8 percent). Of the total respondents in June, 42 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders. Respondent comments include: “Distribution catching up on backlog with slower business coming in” and “Working off backlog; minimal additions to it.”

The five industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in June, are: Educational Services; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Utilities. The seven industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in June — in the following order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Retail Trade; Construction; Finance & Insurance; Transportation & Warehousing; and Wholesale Trade. Six industries reported no change in backlogs in June.

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies increased in June for the second consecutive month after contracting in April and expanding for 11 of the 12 months before that, with the lone contraction in October. The New Export Orders Index registered 51.7 percent, a 10.1-percentage point decrease from the 61.8 percent reported in May. Of the total respondents in June, 73 percent indicated they do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S. Respondent comments include: “Projects in emerging markets keep moving forward, especially in Latin America” and “Seeing increased demand for lower-cost imports.”

The seven industries reporting an increase in new export orders in June — in the following order — are: Construction; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Transportation & Warehousing; Finance & Insurance; Information; and Wholesale Trade. The five industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in June are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Retail Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Educational Services. Six industries reported no change in new export orders in June.

Imports
The Imports Index contracted for a second consecutive month in June, registering 44 percent, 1.2 percentage points higher than the 42.8 percent reported in May, which was the lowest reading since March 2020 (40.2 percent). The index has indicated expansion in 17 of the last 22 months, with contractions this month and last month, March 2023 and December 2023 and an “unchanged” status (a reading of 50 percent) in May 2023. Sixty-six percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials. Respondent comments include: “Reducing non-critical expenses” and “Outsourcing more and more product purchases to Mexico (from China); also sourcing domestically as a backup.”

The five industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of June are: Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The five industries reporting a decrease in imports in June are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Educational Services; Utilities; and Wholesale Trade. Eight industries reported no change in imports in June.

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM^® Services Inventory Sentiment Index grew for the 14th consecutive month in June after one month of contraction in April 2023, preceded by four consecutive months of growth and four months of contraction from August to November 2022. The index registered 64.1 percent, a 6.4-percentage point increase from May’s figure of 57.7 percent. This reading indicates that respondents feel their inventories are too high when correlated to business activity levels.

The 10 industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in June — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Other Services; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Information; Educational Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The only industry reporting a feeling that its inventories were too low in June is Public Administration. Seven industries reported no change in inventory sentiment in June.

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of June 2024.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services). The data are weighted based on each industry’s contribution to GDP. According to BEA estimates (the average of the fourth quarter 2022 GDP estimate and the GDP estimates for first, second, and third quarter 2023, as released on December 21, 2023), the six largest services sectors are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Finance & Insurance.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI^® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI^® above 49 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 49 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 49 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management^®
Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) is the first and leading not-for-profit professional supply management organization worldwide. Its community of more than 50,000 in more than 100 countries manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 by practitioners, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM empowers and leads the profession through the ISM^® Report On Business^®, its highly-regarded certification and training programs, corporate services, events, and assessments. The ISM^® Report On Business^®, Manufacturing, Services, and Hospital, are three of the most reliable economic indicators available, providing guidance to supply management professionals, economists, analysts, and government and business leaders. For more information, please visit: www.ismworld.org.

The full text version of the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is posted on ISM^®‘s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET. The one exception is in January, the report is released on the fourth business day of the month.

The next Services ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring July 2024 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Monday, August 5, 2024.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

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SOURCE Institute for Supply Management